Bryan Karp's Blog

Central TX fires

2011-09-05T15:38:00.001-05:00

We are all okay here, as of right now.

But here is a link to the picture from texasstormchasers.com which shows the Bastrop fire from space.

I'm posting on my blog and trying to cross link because their site keeps getting hit so much it is slow/taking it down.

Source: http://texasstormchasers.com/?attachment_id=4102

If you haven't heard about the fires here are several links:

#in, #fb

Bryan's travel tip #1 - Use a carry-on bag

2011-04-23T12:48:00.001-05:00

I ran across this blog post the other day in my Google reader account - 8 point survival guide for too much business travel, and while I think Ann has some great tips I laughed when I read tip #3 and also #4, but more on that one in a later blog post.

My tip regarding checked bags and carry-on bags...

Bryan's tip #1 - Use a carry-on bag
I almost never check a bag unless I am willing to invest significantly more than 20 - 30 minutes of my overall travel experience at a minimum. I fail to see how Ann can get her bag checked and retrieved in only 10 minutes. Use a carry-on bag always and remember there are irons in just about every hotel these days, and in most cases you can 'steam' those wrinkles out of your clothes by just hanging them in the bathroom with you while you shower. In fact I have never used an iron on the road for my shirts because a.) they are pressed from the dry cleaners first so they'll have fewer wrinkles when I unpack them b.) I hang them in the bathroom while I take a shower and leave the shower on FULL HOT a few minutes after I'm done showering.

Do you ever need more than two pairs of shoes...uh rarely. I have gotten my travel packing down so that on three to four day trips I get by with only my laptop bag and backpack. The backpack is my favorite to travel with in fact because of the compact nature and side pockets. The ability to quickly and easily clear security by not rummaging around my bag to get the toiletries out and in the bin. The best bags I have found for these short (three to four day trips and even five) trips are from either ebags - downloader backpack pictured right, or SharperImage.

Bryan's tip #1.5 - If you must check a bag

Now, in the rare circumstances where you must check a bag :( here are my tips on how to get it done faster. First and most obvious is to pack lightly. You don't want to have the embarrassment of taking things out because you packed more than 50lbs into a single bag.

Check-in using the airline site the night before, then when you arrive at the airport you can in some cases skip the line all together and just go to the counter and tell them you have bags to check. Unfortunately this is not consistent so you'll have to determine which airports let you get by with this trick and which ones won't. For those where you can't use this little trick you're stuck and if you don't have status with the airline you'll likely have to wait in line...not much advice I can offer here other than to build status with a single airline or multiple if you travel a lot as I do.

So here alone if you don't have status you are unfortunately losing at least 10 - 15 minutes off your travel, longer than what Ann mentioned in her post. The best tip I have over the years of travelling with a checked bag really applies to when I arrive back home. This works great if you are towards the front of the plane, or even the middle, and the must is your airport must have FREE 20 - 30 minute parking.

For this one get off the plane as fast as you can and get to your off-airport shuttle. Drive back to the airport close-in parking with the free parking. From here you should be able to walk right in, claim your bag and drive off. This one is so great because instead of waiting in line to get your bag, and then waiting in line to get a ride back to your car you end up not waiting at either location.

Now, you might ask...what do I know about travel? Well for the last few years I have flown enough on AmericanAirlines to achieve their top tier status ExecutivePlatinum, and last year I flew enough to receive top tier status on both AmericanAirlines and UnitedContinental. In the coming weeks I'll post different tips I have learned about flying and travel in general. If you have any tips please share, or let me know what you would like to hear about next time.

Awesome the videos of TEDxAustin are finally up

2011-03-28T15:27:00.000-05:00

Got notification today the videos from the TEDxAustin conference I attend in February are now posted. If you have never heard of TED before or the TEDx events check them out and I'm sure you will find at least one topic / discussion which will interest you.

Below are the videos from the talks I found most interesting. You can also find more about each talk from my blog post a few weeks ago under the heading of TEDxAustin conference. The conference was a blast and so were all the people which I met that Saturday. As expected a number of the items I promised myself I would follow-up on since the event...I haven't done squat with. Thankfully these videos will remind me to get some things together and work on a few of the ideas / thoughts from the conference.

Is Capitalism dead?

Do you know where your food comes from and what's inside?

Awesome slam poet!

Incredible growth in the state of Texas especially when compared to the entire USA.

Do you know why the rocket boosters are their current size, and more importantly what does that have to do with payments?

Let's change how we connect on the web.

Wouldn't it be great if government listened more and citizens had greater participation?

Hopefully you enjoyed at least one of the videos above and are willing to share which talk is your favorite?

Bull or just a longer-term Bear

2011-03-26T22:18:00.002-05:00

Great question - Are we in a long-term Bear market, and if so when will it end?

Image via WikipediaI ran across this draft in my blog roll this weekend which I meant to write-up and publish back in July of 2009 - related to the article at the WSJ - Is This Bull Cyclical or Secular? My initial take then was it is very likely, and now I'm more convinced we have been in a long-term bear / sideways trading market.

As the WSJ article suggests and several related articles below we are indeed in a longer term Bear market, and while the current sentiment is positive...in my mind we haven't turned the corner quite yet. There is too much geopolitical unrest to act as a catalyst to jump us past the old highs. Additionally it will not be possible to create significant GDP growth given the Eurozone and US have such a high unemployment rate. The bull markets of the past, and especially the one in the 80's/90's had a large percentage driven by consumers...guess what if we have a big unemployment rate consumers aren't going to be spending! And as you can see below both the US and Eurozone are still at 9+% unemployment rates. Couple the current economic state, the unrest in the middle east and the unusually calmness it is tough to see how we get away from high unemployment.



Images via Wikipedia of Global unemployment with detailed maps of the Eurozone and USA

So, if we are indeed in a long-term bear market...

The question remains how much longer? A number of cases and evidence can be found to suggest long-term bears tend to operate in 18 year cycles. From the chart below you can easily see the swing of longer term bear and bull markets. You can also look back to the 1800's and see similar trends. Once a longer term bear market begins it generally lasts 18 years, though some are quite longer. Now, there are also a few cases that show bull and bear markets are shorter (see Bull and Bear market durations), though it seems even with smaller cycles they are part of either longer term bull or bear markets.

Given this information I would suggest we become better investors and not pick from the thousands of ETF's. Instead I would suggest we as individuals do our own fundamental and technical analysis to choose the right stock(s). Related I would suggest you pick a number that you feel comfortable you can easily keep up with on a weekly basis. If you pick too many you will not be able to stay up to date on their current fundamentals or technicals. Now that said you can not only pick one or two stocks ... if you do this you wouldn't be diversified and that can be equally bad. A good place to start is by looking at the S&P sector spiders website. From here you can quickly get a sense of the major sectors which comprise the overall market. Do not just look at the Dow30...they do not make a good representative slice of the overall market.

Finally once you have done enough research to know what companies are doing well, and that you want to invest your money, do yourself a favor and investigate options. Options are definitely not for everyone and must be well understood before you jump into them. Once you do understand you can use these akin to insurance to protect your investments, or when in a longer term bull or bear use them for speculation. So, if you do understand options, but just aren't sure all of this is really true...you might consider a strangle on the S&P. I for one am treading carefully in my portfolios and am being very picky about where I invest my cash. At the same time I have opened a strangle on the SPY because I just am not 100% convinced we are going anywhere soon. In the interim I will keep my SPY strangle and be selling OTM puts and calls to reduce my cost basis until there is a clear direction.

So, in closing be wary of the talking heads both positive and negative...nobody knows where we are going in the next few months, or if we have a few more years in this sideways'ish market we've had since 2000 when the last long term bull market ended.

New blogger layout & violence in Libya

2011-03-19T14:40:00.000-05:00

Been a few weeks, and boy have things been busy. Last weekend I took a wild shot to pitch a VC during the SXSWi and got the opportunity. It was an interesting experience and subsequently my business partner and I had a good conversation about where we need to go next regarding our venture. This weekend is thankfully queiter and I'm taking a look back at the markets and checking out the new layouts at blogger.com. As you can see I switched to a travel theme mostly because I was tired of the old thing and I enjoy travelling.

During my updates I found a couple of things I needed to change to keep with my older style. First I did not want the blogger 'favicon' on my pages. After looking through various links and posts I finally found one (http://www.bloggertipsandtricks.com/2008/10/fix-for-missing-favicon.html) which correctly highlights how to change the 'favicon' at blogger - thank you "Peter @ Environman". Next I wanted to remove the header at the top of the page. Again there were various pages, but the one which correctly described how to remove the blogger banner was (http://www.techlineinfo.com/how-to-remove-the-blogger-banner-and-change-the-default-favicon-of-blogspot-blogs/) - thanks Sujith.

Image via WikipediaFor those of you who aren't following the news today it is a new news topic...Japan has fallen off the top of the news cycle and Libya has returned. A few hours ago while reading the paper I heard the French airforce had bombed several Libyan tanks within the no-fly zone http://bit.ly/i1VEbl. Just as we were getting past the news cycle from Japan which took a tremondous toll on the stock markets last week we get a new cycle which is likely to shoot up oil on FUD in the middle east again.

Well that is it for now...I need to get back to reading Barron's for a week in review and checking out what was discussed today at OptionsAnimal. Oh yeh, one more topic is last week I found Zemanta a service to help bloggers quickly reference materials and images from the web. We will see how it works over the next couple of weeks, but so far I like the service.

Tuesday after President's day - the markets are going to stink

2011-02-22T00:34:00.000-06:00

As I close the night I begrudgingly check the futures for a sense of what is to come tomorrow. I have followed some of the events over the weekend, and today regarding Libya, and others so it wasn't a terrible surprise. But, when I did check tonight I am regretful I did not buy protective puts, or at least keep a few protective puts on a few of my positions. (see more regarding put options at 888options.com).

I am at least thankful I have several call contracts on the USO and GLD...and thankful even more I closed my Feb11 short GLD call vs. rolling it up and out to the Feb weekly option expiring this Friday or the one in March. It is also nice to think about the fact I do still have a put contract on the S&P out in September $130 strike price. What this means is while I will likely not be happy tomorrow, I won't be as upset because I won't be down as much if I had not acquired GLD, USO and SPY option contracts several days ago. If you aren't yet familiar with option trading, or option protection I would suggest you become familiar if you do any investing in personal funds. This way you can at least trade with reduced risk by buying or selling option contracts as you best see fit.

Well that is it for tonight as I have to be up early tomorrow morning :). Enjoy your Tuesday and unless you're protected or brave just ignore the next few days in the markets. Then when it calms down do your buying. And, in case you're wondering the primary exit for both my USO and GLD options are 100%+ return since I bought them mostly as portfolio protection. Secondary exits will be to sell for no less than a 25% loss & sell short calls as necessary in diagonal formats.

Bryan

What a busy weekend - Conference, trades, B-day's, Social Security

2011-02-21T01:00:00.000-06:00

Wow...the weekend is coming to a close and I can't believe how busy it has been...as I sit here with a nice glass of Bowmore scotch it is time to reflect on the weekend and everything which has taken place.

The weekend was filled with a dinner out Friday evening, an awesome conference on Saturday, with some sadness I missed both of my boys scoring goals on Saturday. Finally on Sunday we celebrated the birthday of my oldest son...albeit many days afterwards it turned out to be a perfect time to celebrate with friends especially considering the awesome weather we had today in Texas! Thankfully earlier Sunday I had an opportunity to relax, play some Sudoku and read a few articles from the Statesman, Barron's and elsewhere.... so on to the updates.

Like most people who have been married for several years (or a decade plus in my case) my wife and I chose to forgo heading out on Valentine's Day. Instead we chose to enjoy a calm (not rushed) dinner out Friday evening. Our choice was Freda's mostly because my company handed out a few gift certificates a few weeks ago. The restaurant itself was nice, unfortunately I can't say the same about all the food we ate Friday evening. Still it was nice to get out even for a while and enjoy a meal...little did I know it was going to turn out to be a longer weekend than I had anticipated. All-in-all I think the restaurant is good, but I think they need to work on their seasoning of the entrees. The appetizers we had were good and I have heard the desserts they make are excellent, but maybe Friday night was just not the right night....we'll give them a try again, but only after hearing positive remarks from others on Yelp, or elsewhere.

TEDxAustin conference

If you haven't heard of TED before I would suggest you check it out. TED stands for Technology, Education and Design and the x from this weekend indicates it is an independently organized event. Hence TEDxAustin was held this past Saturday February 19th at the Austin music hall, and WOW what an event. I was turned on to TED last summer while visiting my brother in Illinois and boy was my mind blown by the talks we watched and the hundreds of talks I have watched since that time. So, Saturday was to be my first live conference for any TED...and I was certainly not let down. The event opened with MotherFalcon a local band in Austin, and even though I somewhat expected live music I did not expect the caliber of music I heard on Saturday. Videos from the conference won't be posted for a couple of weeks but to give you some concept...the talks ranged from conscious capitalism, food and the changes over the past decade, synthetic biology, the declining male, the Haynesville shale, cartography, rethinking the way we visit the Internet and a new language, enlightenment of others challenges, the amazing growth of Texas compared to the rest of the US, changing the bureaucracy (er...crazy), the future of payments, a little psychotherapy, an award winning word artist / teacher, and formula one racing in the Austin TX area. The event was spectacular thanks to the tremendous effort from the sponsors and staff organizers...which says a lot because the entire event is self-organized!

The first talk I enjoyed thankfully turned out to be he first of the conference ... conscious capitalism. As this talk began I was very skeptical since it began with Capitalism is dead! I am a very strong believer in capitalism so it was a tough pill for me to swallow at first and I was kid you not I was thinking...what the hell have I gotten myself into...this is Austin after all. As Sunny Vanderbeck continued during his talk I became more convinced of his concepts and focus that Capitalism is indeed not dead, rather it is the way it has been practiced is dead and not working because we need to change and work on the next revolution of capitalism here in the US and abroad.

The next talk that was a personal favorite and crowd favorite was by Robyn O'Brien and the changes in our food over the past 10 - 15 years. Robyn had a very passionate story and one which she turned into a passion to find out what has changed in our food supply over the past several years ... unfortunately after one of her children got sick at breakfast one morning. Robyn showed and talked about the dramatic increase in food allergies in children, the fact the EPA actually watches corn crops, and the startling nature about how the chemicals the US allows into their food, but the rest of the world STOPS! I am all for improved production of crops so we can produce enough food for the world...but we must always ask at what cost! When countries including Canada and most of Europe prevent the hormone injections in cows to produce more milk, why is the US continuing to make this mandatory. Why is the US paying subsidies to the farmers to inject 'foreign' substances which is what the body is attacking...then charging the farmers who don't several taxes thereby substantially increasing all organic items we consume. If you would like to learn more you can visit Robyn's site at Allergy Kids Foundation.org.

Osama Bedier was also a favorite talk of the day especially when comparing the future of payments to why we still can't reach Mars using the space shuttle. Do you know why? One of the reasons is the rocket boosters. Did you know the rocket boosters are built in Utah (?)...the boosters are then transported by railroad, but since they are transported by railroad they can only be so wide...why because the railroads have to travel through the mountain side, and why else...they tracks are only 4'8" apart and have even more limited space between them. I'll link to the site when his talk is posted...but short story is the size of the railroads date all the way back to the roman chariots and the size of two horses asses! If you'd like to learn more between now and then let me know and I'll do my best to recall the correlation.

Dustin Haisler, former city manager of Manor TX also was a very engaging and wonderful speaker. He discussed how Manor made use of game theory and crowd-sourcing concepts to improve the community in Manor. Game theory is very close to my heart right now as I think about and work with our team at work to apply the concepts to what and how people use our software to deliver better service to their end customers. Dustin's talk also tied in closely with a quasi-forum type panel where the representative from AMD talked about how they are working to tie in game-theory to improve classroom learning. I'm only sorry I don't recall her name and unfortunately I can't find her name in my book either, but once I learn I will update and re-post.

The last two talks which really captured my interest were from Gary Thompson, a member of the founding team of Kimbia, and from Dr. Lionel Tiger author of the book "The Decline of Males". Gary talked about his thoughts on changing the way we use the internet and the web. Gary's family has had some personal challenges with cancer where is where he likely got the idea of changing the way we use the internet from HTML to a Contextual markup language. The general premise was let's make use of the connected nature of everything to choose who and where we decide to share information about ourselves to help doctors, and various other organizations make better informed decisions, quicker and with more information than they previously had in their hands. Again I've likely not done as good of a job describing in this brief blurb his thoughts, but ping me and I'll share more. Lastly on my list was the frank talk from Dr. Lionel Tiger regarding the decline of males...and in effect the babying of the males today and our need to get over it and let boys be boys. The fact we have over-sensitized males and over-hyped their need to 'get in touch with their feelings' has contributed to why many females are choosing to 'go it alone' and have children without any male involvement... Hence where have all the good men gone these days :(.

The other talks were great as well, but these were among my top favorites and you can learn more in the coming weeks once they post the conference talks. If you have a chance apply to attend the event next year, and check out TED to learn more...I'll bet you learn a lot, and likely even get a few new ideas about how to transform your life, operations, perspective on life, or just get a good laugh..."Moz Jobrani: Did you hear the one about the Iranian-American?" at TED is great!

Nvidia trade update
On Saturday I also needed to evaluate how things looked after the recent earnings release from NVDA. As you may recall from my post earlier in the week I bought protection (option puts) in case the earnings were bad. Thankfully the earnings from NVDA were better than expected and I closed my put positions as early as I could on Thursday morning since NVDA broke out. I subsequently also sold short February $26 strike price calls since I viewed that level as resistance and I knew there was only two days left in the February expiration contracts. Unfortunately...yes...buy buying protective puts my overall trade is at a loss right now, and I am perfectly okay with that because if it had crashed and I had not bought protection I would have been very pissed...ask me about the time I completely forgot about a company announcing earnings and did not buy any protection :(. As the weeks and months progress I'll update you more, but at the time my strangle position is stagnant, though my collar position is looking nice since the stock has appreciated since I purchased.

Sunday morning, the Statesman and Social Security?

Look, I have not been a fan of the Austin American Statesman, but Sunday's business section regarding Social Security hit right on...RIGHT NOW for me given the recent talk from Saturday at TEDxAustin with the theme of RIGHT NOW. I am not getting any younger and unfortunately the same goes for our Social Security fund...it is under-funded, mis-managed, and worse a ponzi scheme worse than Madoff. It seems my feelings are not alone either. Scott Burns from the Statesman wrote an article for Sunday's business section which aligns closely with my thoughts regarding this fleecing/ponzi-ing of American - "You've been robbed of Social Security - what can we do? by Scott Burns". I started to write a blog back in 2009 during the height of the debates between McCain and Obama only to find out :( I never posted the article. In short I was making the case we must make sense of the Social security and soon...we are digging ourselves into a deeper problem since we started stealing from the fund. I can appreciate not everyone has the thought or capability to save for retirement, and in some cases it is used for disabilities putting people out of work...but I am sick and tired of the government abusing the fund and not putting my money I've paid in to good use. As of December 2009 I have paid over six figures into Social Security when you consider the amount my employers have paid over the years. That would be perfectly okay with me if I ever thought I was going to see a penny of those dollars repaid. What could I do with that amount...A LOT, and so could YOU! I hope Scott's article gets someone thinking soon and hopefully it is the collective US (you and me) pushing those in Washington to an answer before we sit there and try to rub two pennies together wondering where all the money went.

Finally we celebrated

Sunday afternoon we celebrated the birthday of my oldest son Dylan. Dylan's birthday was actual earlier this month, but with soccer games, travel and crummy weather we chose to celebrate with his friends later. Dylan is doing great and both my wife and I are so excited he is doing well in school. Dylan had a good time with all his friends, and I'm sure they had a blast especially since they got to decorate their own cupcakes...including how much frosting they put on their cupcakes. Thankfully the weather cooperated and we all enjoyed a nearly 80 degrees sunny afternoon in the Austin, TX area.

In closing last week was great, filled with lots of stuff at work, a great conference on Saturday, confirmation others think what I do on Social Security, and a great party for my oldest son. This coming week I am going to keep my eye on overall market since I'm very surprised we have had almost zero pullback in the market, and right now gold is trading up $11.7 at $1396.8 in the futures market and Oil is trading up $2.625 at $91.475 Monday morning February 21st. Thankfully my short call positions against the USO and GLD either expired on Friday or were closed. I am also going to be closely watching my positions in AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, APA, FFIV, DECK, and FAST.

Have a great week, great trading and I hope if you have the day off Monday you get to enjoy.

Bryan

Finally back on the wagon with both Trading and Blogging - Ahhh...Nvidia.

2011-02-15T21:44:00.001-06:00

I won't bore you with the should've / would've / could've. Instead I'll just say I've been delinquent in updating my blog and tonight I'll start again with a variety of topics - ranging from finance, recipes I've doctored, places to eat, world stuff, etc.

Tonight though I'm going to begin with one of my "geeky" passions...financial markets. Specifically I'm going to explain my thoughts on Nvidia (NVDA) and the equity and options trades I have in place for the earnings announcements tomorrow. I have had these trades in place now for a few weeks, but tonight's blog from the WSJ (Tomorrow’s Tape: NVIDIA, Deere and a Slew of Economic Data) reminded me of the earnings announcements and economic data coming out early tomorrow morning.

Starting at 8:30am EST we get the following data points

8:30 - Housing starts
8:30 - PPI (Producer Price Index)
9:15 - Industrial Production
10:00 - Geithner talks to Congress
10:30 - EIA Petroleum status
14:00 - FOMC meeting minutes released

WOW - that is a lot of data points being provided to the market tomorrow.

Things I'll be paying attention to out of all these are #1, #2, #3 and #6. I am by no means an expert, but I am expecting us to see a continued slow pace in Housing starts. I expect this because we still have a high un-employment rate, getting a new mortgage is still requiring a big upfront investment...and my perception is we still have a huge inventory of existing and empty houses. I am much more interested in the second data point as it will give us some indication of what to expect in the coming months. The PPI is what producers are charged for taking inputs before they grow, build, (whatever) the final goods for the Consumer. If we see a significant increase in the PPI we will likely see a significant increase in the CPI (Consumer Price Index). That increase will translate into higher prices for the Consumer when we are just coming out of a pro-longed and some are calling the 'Great Recession'. Finally we'll get the meeting minutes from the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) which you may know better if I mention the head Ben Bernanke :). Some of the comments I've seen recently indicate a few of the members of the FOMC are becoming hawkish...which roughly means they are starting to discuss raising interest rates.

All of that is likely a lot to think through...which is why those data points coupled with the fact NVDA is announcing their earnings for last quarter tomorrow I have put on a few different trades. I'll make all of my following comments first by saying I'm not suggesting or providing any investment advice or providing a buy or sell opinion...only my thoughts and actual trades I have placed on NVDA in preparation for tomorrow. Secondly if you have not traded options before and don't understand them...please do not do so until you fully understand the risks associated because while they are very lucrative they can be very risky if you don't understand how they work. If you'd like I can walk you through options and options trading, but 888options.com is a great resource, and if you are willing to pay money to learn more about options I'd point you at OptionsAnimal.com.

So...on to my trades.

First I've been a shareholder of NVDA for quite some time now so my first trade is to protect the recent run-up in NVDA since the beginning of this year.

As you can see there has been quite a bit of price appreciation since that time...in fact we have seen a 46% increase. The other details you see in my chart are 5, 21, 55, 100 and 200 EMA (Extrapolated Moving Averages), Bollinger Bands, RSI indicators and MACD.

Covered stock - Bought March $20 strike put options

Collar w/ stock - Bought 100 shares @$23.52, sold a Sep $30 call strike for a $1.40 credit and bought a Mar $20 strike put for $.47 - with a max return of $7.41 per share and a max loss of $2.59 per share.

I have a few additional trades, but we'll keep them simple this time as protective options...in case you're interested though my additional trades are Calendar strangles which you can learn more about in future posts or at 888Options.com (I think they talk about these).

The first trade is to protect my existing stock 225 shares at an average cost basis of $20.005. To do this I bought two March $20 strike put options @ $.33 on February 7th - creating a Covered Stock position. Doing this protects my investment should the stock fall below my CB (Cost Basis). Even if the stock does not fall below $20 I should make money if the price nears the $20 strike price. As of today's close the price dropped $.56 and my options are now worth $.665 already a 50% increase. Yes, I have a downside from the current level of $22.55, but in reality my actual cost basis is likely lower with selling covered calls against the stock over the past few years.

The second trade is a nice trade where I have a very clearly defined primary exit. In this case I am planning to keep the stock until September fully acknowledging if the price rises above $30 by options expiration on the third Friday of September the stock will be taken away (e.g. sold). This would be a a return of $7.41 per share or an Annualized return of 62% in 214 days, and yes there could be much further upside I'm okay with that since I have more stock. I also have other trades in place to protect against just that case (exploding collar). On the downside as mentioned above I'm also protected in the case the stock gets killed by bad earnings. My $20 March strike put option will make money if the stock declines closer to and/or past $20 and the call I sold short ($30 September) will continue to lose money and I would buy back, or more likely roll up and into front months creating covered calls. Doing this will further reduce my cost basis and keep me sane :).

All in all with the fundamental analysis I've done in the past few months I believe NVDA is in good shape especially with their recent announcements with Samsung and others. Anything is possible, but I'm pretty happy with what I've uncovered in my analysis and will be happy continuing to hold this stock before, after and during earnings.

I'm sure it isn't all clear if you aren't familiar with trading options, but I can tell you once you learn and have a good grasp ... options are a good tool for investing and trading in these markets (bull and bear).

Well that is all for tonight...later this week I'll write an update on how the Nvidia trade is faring and also provide some insights into how my Investment Club is also faring these days.

Good night and good trading / investing / working tomorrow.

Bryan

Are you using Google Sidewiki with Twitter. 3 ways it could help?

2009-09-28T17:15:00.000-05:00

I downloaded Google's Sidewiki plugin last week and have spent a little time playing with their latest tool in the toolbox. This afternoon I got thinking that maybe if you couple Sidewiki with Twitter it could help with a few things.

Go to your twitter account profile page and click the Sidewiki button to provide additional content / details including:

Provide additional bio information about yourself
Possibly hyperlink to your email address, LinkedIn profiles, etc. so people could easily reach you vs. having to type in the associated link
Use to highlight people that are spammers and help others with who not to follow
Others?

There are probably many other ways it could be useful, of course it could also turn into a mess because I don't know how you could remove offensive content, user's feedback. Certainly you could 'Report Abuse' and go through the Google 'Report a policy violation' process, but who knows if they'll remove the offending comment from your sidewiki page.

Do you think it will help, hurt, is useless?

Thoughts on book - What got you here won't get you there

2009-09-27T02:02:00.000-05:00

I just finished reading the book "What Got You Here Won't Get You There: How Successful People Become Even More Successful". I have to admit the early beginnings of this book had me wondering if I was going to get any value out of the book. By the end I was thinking of ways I could use concepts from the book to improve my style both professionally and personally. One of the biggest areas I see in the people I work with on a daily basis is listening...and talking less. This is a strong and recurring theme in the book that is a problem with most people. So, I would say to improve take to heart the concepts the book describes and learn about how you can improve your relationships, style. People should obtain candid and honest feedback from peers, subordinates, and leaders, then listen attentively to what they are telling you.

My final take on the book is 3.5 stars out of 5. My feedback is I wish the authors could have been a little less about their own self-promotion of their business, and wins...and highlighted more of the success of their clients and how they improved. I would recommend reading the book as most people don't think they have anything to improve. Goldsmith and Reiter help highlight for everyone we can improve and the areas we should focus on in our professional and personal lives.

Did you read the book? If so I would love to hear your thoughts / feedback.

Thanks,

Bryan Karp

Should the US have a national healthcare reform plan

2009-09-06T03:59:00.001-05:00

First let me quote an article from the WSJ last Friday (September 4th) - How to insure every American

"Americans nationwide have voiced their desire for greater control over their care and for reform in digestible pieces." - JOHN SHADEGG AND PETE HOEKSTRA ¹

There are two very important aspects within that quote. The first is Americans do want change in healthcare and recognize the need for some reform. The second aspect is the change must be digestible implemented over time, and needs to come from a cross-party, intelligent team. Ideally the plan for our healthcare reform would come from a round-table of industry experts who know the details of the problem, and have identified ways to improve in the past. I do not admit to understand all the issues, but I do know this...we should treat this the same as we would a new business startup. In fact if these companies knew what was best they would start to evaluate their businesses and evaluate their pricing policies to help consumers. The ones who wait until the last minute or change after the new solution will be looked upon very poorly. Imagine it is 2013 and your policy is adjusted down by XX^%...how are you going to feel, and are you going to ask why they didn't do that sooner. Now the next day you talk with your neighbor and they said...oh yeh, back in 2009/2010 my company adjusted my policy down because they realized they could drive efficiencies within the process. Imagine the goodwill the second company will have received vs. the first company who will probably experience a mass-exodus. Of course the day after people are going to start going after them just like they are today after the bankers like BearStearns, and probably rightfully so. Now given my statements above...I want to make it clear I'm not trying to propagate fear^7,8,13, rather I'm trying to suggest that the companies evaluate their policies and re-consider pricing. Just remember mandates from the Government are NOT the answer...we need a jointly agreed upon solution.

First and foremost we need to properly identify the entire problem before we begin implementing solutions. Now, I don't mean we just say that we have a problem, but drill into each and everyone of the issues creating a detailed fishbone diagram and/or process map analysis to identify exactly where we are having the problems and attach weights to each point. This should allow the "expert round table" to focus on the most costly areas to drive quick improvement, later focusing on areas that don't have a high / costly impact. One of the main components this needs to address is the fact ^1/₅^th of the American economy is spent on health care...or $2,500,000,000,000 (2.5 trillion)⁴. That said I am still confused about how countries outside of the US which have a government sponsored (universal health) are spending less per capita than the US, yet the talk is of expectations of an additional $1,000,000,000,000 (1.0 trillion)^4,12 of additional spending if the US moves to a universal health care program.

For congress to gain the support of their constituents they need to keep people informed, distill the facts into simple but factual presentations / documents / blogs, continue to refine the improvements and not bicker back and forth. It will not do anyone good for either side to point the finger back and forth at the other one. If we ran our business like the government nothing would ever get done because one faction would constantly blame the other, and we wouldn't make any progress for years! I also think that Congress needs some severe motivation to solve this problem (again with a round table of experts)...and maybe they should announce they will pay for their own insurance or another radical idea to help them become motivated to reach a mutually agreeable and acceptable solution for the American people. ^{Above goes back to reference 6.}^{Now everyone must remember we don't want mandates, we want CHOICES.}

As readily admitted in the article government helped create this problem so, why do we expect they will solve this problem by themselves.

"Government has caused the problems we face in health care." - JOHN SHADEGG AND PETE HOEKSTRA¹

Today I see ads for everything related to insurance and I even have the opportunity to buy insurance myself if I were a contractor. But companies don't have a real opportunity to buy across state lines, so there is no real competition within the insurance industry. As noted in the reference 1 car and life insurance companies can sell across state lines thereby increasing competition, decreasing costs to the consumers and naturally driving efficiencies into the process. None of the aforementioned exists within health care because there is no real competition...and we haven't even really started with the drug companies, but we will probably leave that out of this post :-). Most companies within the past year or so have taken to reducing costs, most of which have been salary reductions, but the next cost they may consider is health care benefits if the costs continue to rise.

On the topic of pre-existing conditions...there isn't much really to say. There is always some company that will cover a driver that has numerous auto-accidents, and while it is different than a pre-existing condition why don't we do the same for pre-existing conditions? I do not recall if it was an urban legend or reality but I have heard some insurance companies treat pregnancy as a pre-existing condition. Now I have two children and I would never say that my wife had a condition when she was pregnant and parenthood is anything but a condition. I understand that everything comes down to money, but I think we should demand the health insurance companies really show us their books. I don't know I'm convinced it really costs them serious money to cover someone with a serious illness that is pre-existing. There are plenty of individuals who are health their entire life, without knowing the facts my guess is all the premiums they collect from those individuals overtime balance out against the costs and premiums they collect from those who get sick or have a pre-existing condition.

The last discussion point the article talks about Un-Insured Americans. What a laughable topic...not laughable in the fact we have far too many people that don't have insurance. Instead we have countless people who take advantage of our existing system by coming across the border for better health care and in effect getting free health care for which we pay out of our pockets later. We also have numerous people going across the border OUTSIDE the US for dental care, and other procedures because the costs are cheaper in places such as Canada and Mexico.

From another post² Americans may generate a bit more of the problem themselves because...we don't eat and exercise like we should. Having traveled just a little :-) within the past few years I have to agree. I myself can even resemble the statement as I spend more time behind a desk and less and less time on a treadmill, elliptical, etc. In this case I think it was Safeway that had the right idea from the company perspective⁹. They incent their employees to exercise, eat right and not smoke. Again it might have been a different company, but my recollection from the TV interview was they covered more of the health benefits for the employees who ate right, etc...and they penalized employees who ate the wrong foods, smoked, etc. Now they recognized that people can and do in fact change when properly motivated so, if someone was making progress they modified the benefits package accordingly to reflect the change in their behavior.

I guess my summary is...we must have a round table of experts within the industry, coupled with experts outside of the industry that know how to cut costs, while maintaining quality. We need to have change, it needs to make sense, politicians need to work together (yeh right...when does that happen), and for a change they'll need to read the entire bill before they vote. I am hopeful my children don't have to worry about this topic the same way my parents generation and I spend time thinking about social security¹¹.

I hope this post continues the debate and brings civility and discussion.

Thanks,

Bryan Karp

References and Related posts that drove my thoughts:

G20 meets on bankers pay. What about provisions when politicians fail?

2009-09-05T23:26:00.000-05:00

I just finished skimming through some of the WSJ articles. One that caught my attention G-20 Agree to Boost Banks' Capital Requirements, Set Rules on Bonuses which makes me think...what about those that make these rules / decisions?

Given everything that happened within the past few years I can't say I don't agree with the G20 on this subject. I also can't say I agree with them either...I'm very torn on this subject. On one hand bankers probably do need to feel some pain if they receive a bonus for which we later discover was not warranted. On the other hand doesn't this mean greater government involvement...meaning they could do the same for other industries? If that is so, when will we get the ability to enact clawbacks on government officials? What can we do if/when we learn they use government funds inappropriately? How about if they leave office and hence us with a significant debt on our heads?

I'm all for regulation when it makes sense, but in this case I want to start seeing politicians doing what they say....not telling companies how to act...and doing something else!

In B2B what is better paid pilot or free trials

2009-09-05T17:09:00.002-05:00

While reading some recent blog posts I ran across this post from Adam Blitzer's blog B2B Marketing ROI "Are Paid Pilots or Free Trials better for B2B?".

As someone who works in the B2B space and constantly looking for B2B tools to help our team, this is a good relevant post. Additionally I think it applies to the B2C market where I will sign-up for a number of free trials, but stop them or not continue because I just don't have the time, or they haven't shown me any value.

I am in agreement that 'Free trials' are rarely worth their time and effort in a B2B environment as companies tend to walk away, or the product is too complex for anyone to use without significant training. The 'free trial' tends to work better in a B2C environment IF the consumer can see value immediately. For B2B sales rarely is the 'free trial' ever free...it always require some time from the user trying the solution, and in some cases requires paid professional services to make it work...so it is never FREE. That said one good example of a 'free trial' is the Sample books you can get for the Amazon Kindle, and free 14 day trials you can get for magazines, newspapers, but I would love to see what their conversation rates are from free samples.

On the point of 'Paid Pilots'...Adam's points all make sense and are right on with getting a customer to convert. The issue I have seen with paid pilots is they do not always have a definitive 'ENDING' and a definitive 'CONVERSION'. Both of these points lead to the Pilot paralysis...in which neither the customer nor the vendor consummate the deal. If you have to make a decision always do Paid Pilots unless of course you can go straight to a full deal. If you do decide to go with a Paid Pilot, or have to because of the complexity of the product, or size of the customer make sure you...

Have a clear measure of success that is SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Timely)
Define a clear ending point for the Pilot within the agreement
Insert a trigger point within the agreement at which the Pilot rolls to a full deployment
Plan for a case study / way to prove the value up front; don't design it into the process after-the-fact
A point I can't emphasize enough....KEEP the executive sponsor(s) engaged and informed throughout the pilot

I'm sure there are other major points, maybe you'd care to share your thoughts, but these were at the top of my mind before I headed off to the pool and dinner.

My quick take on Groundswell

2009-09-04T22:32:00.000-05:00

If you are interested in improving your companies SMO efforts and brand awareness I recommend reading "Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies". Groundswell lays out several case studies on how people / companies reached out to their customer base. While most companies live in FEAR of the Groundswell you need to help create the plan to break the FEAR and help Sr. management and Marketing realize that they don't own 100% of the brand anymore because our customers own a major percentage and are constantly talking about your brand. My only suggestion for future editions is to provide a bit more detail on what technologies people were using to drive the groundswell.

Love my Kindle2 - but the Amazon Kindle forum and feedback loop stinks

2009-08-30T04:42:00.000-05:00

First let me start by saying I love my Kindle2 which I've had for 2+ weeks now. Also I just finished reading the book "Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies" on my Kindle which drives some of my frustration about Amazon, their Kindle community and feedback forum...to that end I left the post below on their main Kindle community forum page.

Couple of quick things related to the Kindle, the Community and the feedback mechanism

I've had my new kindle for 2+ weeks now and really enjoy the kindle.
You've got a great product and it has viral effects...I've shared my thoughts and let no less than 2 dozen people hear me / see my kindle since I've owned my Kindle2.
My key point about this one is YOU Amazon need to read the book Groundswell which I've just read. Just in case you don't know of the book I've inserted a link :-). "Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies"
It is ridiculous that finding this forum is difficult.
Users who own a kindle should be able to provide recommendations, and see other recommendations (feedback) on this community. You can still accept emails from your customers and post them to the community, but then at least we can all rate them and help you in future product improvements. As an example I really liked one posters comment about reducing the 'slip' factor by placing some rubber on the back edges of the reader so it doesn't slip out of your hands. If you had a rating factor I would have rated that feature. That rating coupled with other Kindle owners rating could then be applied in your decisions about future product development plans.

Now for some feedback on the Kindle 2

Automatically turn the kindle to off mode if it has been in sleep longer than 15 minutes. If you don't we will likely have screen burn-in, not to mention it drains the battery!
Let me push books to my wish list when I'm reviewing from the kindle store on my kindle device. I don't want to buy the books I see every time, but there are some that look interesting that I may want to purchase later.
Give me an option to archive items after I'm done reading them. Or, at least give me an option to create 'Read' folders so that it helps me keep the 'Home' menu clean.
Tied with the point above - Let me delete Samples from the device after I've read them, or if I've downloaded the book let me delete the Sample.
Related to the 'Sample' feature. If I download a Sample tag that and index where I left off within the 'Sample' to the actual book if I download. I've read a couple of books now this way and it is frustrating to get into a good book only to have to 'Next page' continuously to find where I left off reading the 'Sample'.
I just saw how to delete 'Samples' - not an intuitive feature...by any means. I accidentally clicked on the navigation button and saw I can 'Delete This Sample'. You let me 'Buy This Book Now' from the menu, but you don't let me delete....
To an earlier point, let me categorize / create my own folders. I would like to be able to start the morning and flip to my newspaper folder read all the newspapers, then over to my blog folder. This can be an optional feature...if users don't enable they retain the laundry list sorting they have now, but tagging and organizing content would make life easier IMHO.
Let me offer feedback directly from my kindle where I'm probably going to come up with the ideas / feedback anyway. I get the free ability to shop the Amazon store from my device, but I can't send you feedback...that is crazy!
Give me the ability to lock my device just like my cell phone. I would hate to lose my kindle or have it stolen...but to make it worse if it were stolen, users could buy as many books as they wanted and I'd be screwed. If I do forget my password, let me reset it from my kindle, but disable the ability to purchase from the store until I reset my account via the Amazon.com website.
Make the keys a bit bigger. I'm young (early 30's), but the buttons are still small for someone who types a lot on my iPhone and computer you could make better use of the empty space on the bottom but before the screen, plus you have a bit of extra space still on the left.
Give me some type of option or setting to turn off the 'Next Page' button on the left of my screen. I maybe the only person to ask for this one, but being right handed and using my mouse to navigate back all the time I think of the buttons on the left as 'Back' buttons.
Respond to your users when they give you feedback...at least an automated message that you received my last email would be nice.

Again, after only a few weeks the Kindle is one of my favorite technology devices and travel with it all the time. I hope to help you continue your future product lines and look forward to debate and conversation on the forum, etc.

Thanks,

Bryan Karp
- midnitecoder
www.bryankarp.com

Study - People aren't using turn signals

2009-08-12T03:12:00.004-05:00

I'm thinking about starting a study to track the number of times people don't use their turn signal when they should. I'll expand more over the next several days based upon observations and feedback from people. So, please let me know your thoughts and if you've seen the same where you live.

Thanks,

Bryan

Should sales people be measured on more than just quota

2009-08-12T01:06:00.000-05:00

While doing my tweet reading tonight I ran across this tweet from Paul Krajewski, from Toronto. His tweet/blog post was asking

"Should Sales people should be tracked, measured, or accountable for anything other than quota?"

My response was Absolutely! see my thoughts below and adjust / tear apart as necessary :-).

Yes, Sales people must be measured by much more than just their quota. I run the Pre-Sales and Analytics department where I work and engage with multiple internal sales people and our external channel partners. I spend a good percentage of my time reviewing and analyzing metrics for various aspects of the business and metrics are critical, hence my view "Unless you can measure something, your attempts at managing it, and maintaining or improving its performance, will be unscientific at best." by Lord Kelvin. So, yes sales must be tracked and measured on each aspect of the business, and while quota is certainly an important aspect in what sales people need to be measured by it can by no means be the only measure.

I'll walk through each of the points, but sales people should also be measured by the

ROI of the deal
Lead to close time
Customer satisfaction after the deal is closed
Accurate population of data within the CRM
Forecast-to-actual sales
% Penetration within account
% Conversion rate by lead type (hot/cold)
Time per sales stage
Attrition rate per sales stage
Average deal size
Ramp time

Metric: ROI of the deal - It does no good for a deal to be sold if the return is going to take years, or there will never be a return because the contract ends before a return can be recognized. Far too many times I have seen in companies where the sales rep pushes for a deal to meet their quota without regard for the level-of-effort required by services, or support after the deal is closed. This then kills any margin left.

Metric: Lead to close time - While not a metric to hold a rep 100% accountable for it is a key metric. Imagine if you knew for all your deals the typical lead to close time from when it entered the queue from BusDev and/or marketing to when it was closed. This can enhance your visibility and forecasting capability. Additionally it can help highlight individuals how might need additional training and who might be able to help them.

Metric: Customer satisfaction after deal closing - This ties back to ROI and later in the account when you try to get a reference. If you have a true 'Cassius the closer - character from Selling the Wheel' they worry about getting the deal closed, not always what is required afterwards. This can lead a bad taste in the client's mouth and put the deployment team in a precarious situation.

Metric: Accurate and complete data population within the CRM - A no brainer! I have heard the reasons why it isn't done from various sales people and it ceases to amaze me.

Metric: Actual-to-Forecasted sales per time period - this does tie to quota, but really it ties closer to how well the rep does at forecasting. Additionally if you track this over time companies can increase their visibility in corporate forecasting, and also detect problems earlier. If you detect a sales person is historically off by 10% you can adjust in your corporate forecasts and help them with training to improve. If you see a one-time drop you can keep an eye on them for the next time period vs. trying to guess what happened last reporting period. Seems like a no-brainer, but as I've talked to people it seems this metric is never reported on or tracked.

Metric: % Penetration within account - In most sales engagements there are specific roles that need to be identified. Where deals can go bad pre or post deal closing can be attributed to not having fully penetrated the account to find all the key players.

Metric: % Conversion rate by lead type (hot/cold) - Simple measurement by resource to determine what % of leads they are given convert.

Metric: Time per sales stage - Quickly highlights for management and sales person if displayed properly deals that need attention. These would be the deals where it is taking significantly longer in the current deal stage vs. the average. Additionally it helps to identify problem spots if it is tracked. We measured every stage in one of pre-sales efforts and were able to quickly identify key areas for improvement, and develop a longer-term plan. By doing this we reduced our step within the sales stage thereby helping the sales person move the deal faster. My point is...IF you track the time per stage by deal you can quickly find areas that need improvement and focus a team to improve the methodology.

Metric: Attrition rate per sales stage - Where are deals falling out of the sales process and of equal importance is why?

Metric: Average deal size - Easy metric to measure, but if you measure properly you can get a good feel for the number of deals you'll need to close when doing next year's budget.

Metric: Ramp time - Sales people just like everyone else need to be measured on how long it takes them to be self-sufficient. While most have the sales background every company has a unique value proposition, methodology and of course product / service. If a particular rep is taking longer than average you can work with them to close the gap with training or determine if you need to make a change.

I'm sure there are other metrics that can and should be measured, but the list above are my thoughts. Again let me know if you think I'm off base, or just plain missed some key metrics.

Thanks,

Bryan

Can you find me? My SEO project at work.

2009-08-08T20:50:00.000-05:00

I've been spending the past couple of months doing a lot of research on SEO (Search Engine Optimization), SEM (Search Engine Marketing) and SMO (Social Media Optimization). I have to say there is a tremendous amount of information on the web, and a lot of people who want to bill you for services you can do yourself, especially as it relates to SEO.

Based upon all this new knowledge we are in the process of implementing several sets of changes to my companies website. One of the frustrating aspects of this update is our site was recently revamped, and while the new design looks nice the company which said they knew and understood SEO clearly did not know anything about SEO. They are several basics one needs to understand to implement SEO, and we quickly found out they didn't understand them, or they were speaking about things they couldn't implement. So starting in the next few weeks we are going to be implementing changes to our website so when people search for us, or terms we have optimize for on our site our pages (hopefully) will show up towards the top of the SERP (Search Engine Results Page). This is going to take a lot of work and will be an iterative process so, we will be measuring the changes using Google Analytics to determine what is working and what still needs improvement.

A sampling of the changes we are going to be applying are:
1.) Improve site for SEO - Insert and update the following

Page meta descriptions - descriptions of what the page is about e.g. author, content, category
Page meta keywords - while not used much anymore it doesn't hurt to include them on your site
Page names - a small but important item to optimize e.g. seo.html doesn't mean as much to google as search-enginge-optimization.html
Page titles - a no brainer, but this was a key area the company that revamped our website failed
H1 tags - defined as critical by the W3C and by most sources I've read as very important by search engines. This is a touchy subject with most people, but in the end my take is it does get used and is probably more important if your page uses flash to get its point across.
Alt text - since the engines can't see images this tag gives your images textual descriptions

2.) Improving site content, visibility and infrastructure

Update first sentence to include relevant keywords
Submitting site to directory services and improve sitemap
Improve site links to eliminate no brainers such as click-here :-)
Removing PDFs and replacing with html pages from previous press releases

After we get those aspects done we will start with the second phases of our project, which for the time being I will not be commenting upon for obvious reasons. What I will share is we are evaluating a couple of tools to help with this phase and later phases. The two primary tools being considered right now are HubSpot and Pardot. What is really interesting is how I found HubSpot earlier today. While I was gone on vacation to Cabo (more on that trip at a later time) I got several emails from LinkedIn to groups I subscribe. One of those emails was about B2B Lead Generation which took me to ReachForce.com where I spent a bit of time reading various topics, ultimately reading their ebook Volume 1 Online Marketing. Their ebook is where I found out about HubSpot, subsequently spending several hours watching HubSpot's webinars, reading whitepapers, etc. Ultimately I don't know which company we will end up selecting, but right now I'm very impressed with what I saw and read today from HubSpot.

I'd be interested to hear from anyone who has gone through a similar process, learning about and driving an SEO strategy in-house. Also if you have used other internet marketing software what was your experience and what tool(s) did you use.

New book - The new rules of marketing and PR

2009-07-20T17:40:00.000-05:00

Spent some time earlier today at Barnes and Noble. No real intention to buy anything there other than to waste some time and see if there were any good books. I skimmed through "The Tipping Point", but did not pull the trigger on that one. From a cursory reading of the first hundred pages or so it seemed to repeat itself over and over. Everything related back to some tipping point and that things did not need the overwhelming push as required in the past. They continued and continued to point out small viral inflection points that changed the game. Maybe I'm impatient and should have kept reading, so let me know your thoughts if you thought there was much more to this book.

I put the book back and started looking for something else to pass the time. I started to skim "The New Rules of Marketing and PR" and decided to purchase. After reading the first 50+ pages I'm very happy with my purchase and the direction. It is right up the alley I have been building a plan for around our new marketing campaign. It also hits up a number of the same points from the last book I finished "Your Marketing Sucks...details inside".

If you have read or have thoughts on either or what you've done to implement a new marketing / PR program I'd love to get your thoughts.

Thanks,

Bryan

House passes Climate bill

2009-06-27T18:44:00.002-05:00

Been doing some reading of the 'House Climate Bill' or HR 2998 American Clean Energy and Security Act passed Friday June 26th, 2009 219-212. I have to admit it is very dry as with most bills, that and I have been distracted by doing other things today. A couple of interesting points of what I have read / discovered so far. The bill is ~1,500 pages with 300 of those pages added Friday morning at 3AM. A number of people asked to read the updated text when they learned of the amendment and were told a copy was not available at the speaker's desk or elsewhere. Another interesting point I've learned is the DoE once again has power to give money to automakers to help them transitioning to 'cleaner' automobiles. The exact amount of the new loan is from "SEC. 125. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY VEHICLE MANUFACTURING INCENTIVE LOANS." changed from $25B to $50B.

The cartogram right is very interesting depiction of the votes by state and 'Aye', 'Nay'. From looking at this cartogram and other articles I have to wonder how much lobbying took place related to all the Smart Grid provisions in the bill. I know from previous articles both Google and GE have been actively pushing their SmartGrid technologies. In the same section of SmartGrid and electric distribution the bill states "The United States shall take no equity or other ownership interest in the qualified advanced electric transmission manufacturing plant or qualified advanced electric transmission property for which funding is provided under this subsection." I seriously hope they never revoke / undo this clause or we could be in for bigger trouble. As some might recall the Roosevelt administration tried to run the power plants under the TVA...They are however making changes to light bulb requirements. Starting in 2012 any new candelabra base incandescent shot not exceed 60 watts. So, I guess that means Congress knows how much light we need in our rooms to see, read, eat, etc. Additionally the bill also mandates that beginning January 2012 intermediate base incandescent lamps shall not exceed 40 watts.

The bill clears the way for some new jobs for 'Advisory' positions needing to be created for the Energy Technology Advisory Council. Those who are an advisor and do not already draw a salary from the federal government will be paid "for level IV of the Executive Schedule under section 5315 of title 5, United States Code" or, from what I can read $58K annum. Unfortunately I have only gotten through 350+ pages of the bill and need to move to some other topics, but my quick take is this bill is not in the best interest of the US. We can expect dramatic changes once this bill reaches the senate and they have had an opportunity to read and improve the bill. One last item which gives me pause is the potential for future problems with the proposed 'cap and trade' of carbon credits and their potential valuation. If this area is not handled properly it could turn into another bubble and companies in-properly placing valuation on their carbon credits.

Well gotta run, but I hope everyone stays cool, in the Austin area we tied another heat record today at 105 :-(.

Bryan Karp - from http://www.bryankarp.com/

Interview between CNBC and Barney Frank on Exec pay

2009-06-11T10:27:00.002-05:00

Typical Barney Frank...change the question, avoid answering what the interviewer asks and push his own set of questions and answers. Wish I could avoid the questions like he does, maybe if I do I could be in congress.

Once again this interview highlights it is painfully obvious Mr. Frank is unable to handle interviews with multiple people asking questions, even when they are asking one at a time. In this instance Rebecca Jarvis asked Mr. Frank a question which he avoided answering the root of her question. David Faber then proceeded to ask him a different but related topic, Barney then became confused and agitated how dare two people ask him questions in an interview. When he still hadn't answered the question good 'ol Mark Haines followed up and asked Barney a question, where Barney interrupted Mark repeatedly, and then decided he couldn't handle the question or complexity of the questions so Barney and Mark ended the interview pre-maturely.

So, interviewers, I guess your answer is either don't schedule him for interviews or only allow one person to ask him questions. Then let him pander to the direction the wind is blowing today as he chooses, then ask him the same question again. As we all learned from this episode and the many others, it is okay for him to interrupt the interviewer, but nobody should ever interrupt Barney.

Now just to show I'm being fair, my liberal co-worker overheard this interview and made it a point to step in my office and say she, can't stand this idiot!

Thanks CNBC, keep up the good work and watch the video below.

Barney Frank on Executive Pay - CNBC.com

Pictures of Kids from Chicago trip

2009-06-11T00:09:00.002-05:00

Pictures from Julie of the boys and their cousin Iris during their Chicago trip. I'll continue to publish pictures as I receive them and have time.

Thanks to Walt Mossberg's review of the Kindle...

2009-06-10T21:56:00.000-05:00

Thanks as usual to Walt Mossberg for his technical reviews of new gadgets. I had been debating on a.) a kindle all together and b.) the new kindle. Walt's review has helped me make up my mind that *IF* I do decide to bite the bullet and buy a Kindle to not buy the DX.

You can view his review using the link below.

The Latest Kindle: Bigger, Not Better, Than Its Sibling

Leave our 401(k) alone

2009-06-07T23:07:00.005-05:00

The following is a re-post from my FB page January 8th 2009.

Big Slide in 401(k)s Spurs Calls for Change - WSJ.com
Source: online.wsj.com "The stock-market rout has ignited a crisis of confidence for millions of Americans who manage their own retirement savings through 401(k) plans."

Very strange...every time I ever take a allocation survey it always profiles your risk appetite and compares it to that of the 70's bear market. Now, I wasn't alive then and I am in my young 30's so while this does hurt I am willing to live with the short-term losses for the long-term gains. Congress should not touch or modify the 401(k) plans just because some people can't grasp the concept of doing their own research or hiring a financial planner (which I have not done nor do I have the resources to do so). In one sense it is very clear there is no 'true' educational program other than what I have learned from BetterInvesting.org on what companies / funds to purchase. Therefore it is no surprise when employees make poor decisions we all think the system is bad because the people didn't make the right decision especially since they probably don't understand who they are investing in and why. We need to improve the education in our schools and workplaces of how to invest, why we should invest and forget about the late 90's and the high flying days of quick gains in a few days / months. Buffet probably has one of the best lines I have ever heard....I don't care what the market does today, tomorrow, or the next few years, invest in good companies (or in most 401(k)'s good funds) and periodically check on them and re-adjust as needed. Too many people are concerned with what happened in the market today vs. what is going to happen in the next 3 - 5 years. Oh and don't push me into SS considering as a previous poster stated it is no more than a type of ponzi scheme as I'm paying for my neighbors who are now retired...and given the current funding and plans for SS it will be bankrupt when I am ready to retire....and just for the naysayers...if that isn't true then why do we talk about reforming the SS system?!?! Stay out of our finances DC and leave the 401(k) system alone!!

Spring...huh..where did it go?

2009-06-05T17:51:00.000-05:00

The past few months have been extremely busy and included lots of changes. As usual Pointserve has been consuming quite a bit of my time, though I have been able to learn and apply some new concepts, travel to new places, and on occasion relax.

Travels, Customers and thoughts...

Since my last posting I have been to Montreal twice, Chicago, Denver twice, Boston, and Albany. While it can be tough on everyone's personal life, I find it relaxing and exhilarating. During my travels I find I have more time to read the books on my reading list, listen more attentively to customers and prospects, and spend time reflecting on my personal and business life. In my opinion everyone should spend time visiting with customers once a year. Generally people think they know what their customers want and need...this is where I believe they fail and in some cases create products they want not what the customer needs. It isn't until you spend time with customers and/or prospects and walked in their shoes you can truly understand what they want and/or need. To that end I recently re-read the book Five Myths of Consumer Behavior: Create Technology Products that Consumer Will Love. Though the concepts are geared toward companies producing technology for consumers, I believe the process can be broadly applied. If you don't listen to what your customers are saying...you'll build products you want not what your customers need.

Blue Ocean strategy...

I have to begin this section by saying how great the book "Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make Competition Irrelevant" is when building new businesses / product lines. I am in the middle of a few projects and can't stress how excellent this book has been in evaluating where we want to compete, helping us stay focused, and determining if we can indeed build a blue ocean vs. a red ocean. The overall concept of the book is to make you think long and hard about the product or service you are going to provide and how you will 'Eliminate', 'Reduce', 'Increase', and 'Create' features in the market you plan to attack. The book has several great examples including Cirque du Soleil, Southwest Airlines, NetJets, and Casella Wines also known as Yellow Tail. Though we have several iterations until our product launch the combination of Blue Ocean Strategy and agile development methodology we are making great progress. I would strongly suggest that anyone planning on a new business venture, product line extension, or product line update read this book. As we get closer to our product launch I will talk about more details and provide a link to the website...until then you will have to sit in suspense :-).

New executives...
I am always amazed when a company hires a new employee of authority how everyone changes their tune and moves into a 'defend my value / worth'. During my tenure, I have seen a number of senior executives come and go and over time, I have noticed a pattern that makes me laugh. I can't say if it is because I'm over-confident in my team and personal accomplishments, or my team and personal my team's and my track record, or that we (my team and I) get our job done and get it done consistently. What I have noticed is people who are either pessimists or those that have something to worry about go out of their way to make nice with the new executive. What tends to happen next is while they are trying to show their worth they speak out of context and on occasion, they speak to tasks they should have completed vs. tasks they are just starting or have not done. It is my opinion that if you do your job and do it well you will be noticed especially in a small company. That said you can not go far enough to on occasion to tweak your own horn. The last thing I have found is if you have your ducks in a row, a well documented a 'Continuous Improvement' plan in place you will be well served.

The weight lifted...

To add just a bit more suspense, I was able to get my employment agreement modified several months ago. This was a big relief as it now allows me to own my ideas / concepts outside of my day job (pointserve). Since that time, I have been involved in numerous discussions related to new product ideas, companies, and consulting gigs. The only problem now is keeping myself focused on no more than a few projects at a time outside of regular work and family life. If only I could invent a way to pack more hours into a day and sleep, fewer hours and still be productive :-).

Things to come...

Last section for this post and this summer is going to be busy again! I have yet to make up my mind, but I am tentatively planning to attend my 15-year high school reunion from Marmion Military Academy in June. During that entire time Julie and the kids are going to be in Chicago for an entire month so, I will be enjoying pseudo bachelor life at home while they are gone. Additionally Julie and I will be celebrating our 10-year anniversary this year and are tentatively planning a trip to Antigua or any other location that has an all-inclusive package. August might also bring another Chicago trip to attend the Hinckley Big-Rock 15 year high school reunion. While I did not attend HBR, I was good friends with almost everyone who went there and lived in the neighborhood. Of course as noted above, I will be busy with a few outside interests.

I will do my best to keep things updated as the summer progresses but feel free to ping me for an update :-).

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